8 parts · 14 chapters
Systems Thinking and Critical Thinking
Most engineering mistakes at senior levels are not coding mistakes; they are thinking mistakes: solving the wrong problem, trusting a misleading number, missing a feedback loop, or being certain without evidence. This course is a toolkit for thinking clearly, with examples from engineering and fintech.
Eight parts: systems thinking beyond the Systems Engineering course; mental models worth owning; arguments as claims, evidence and warrants; the cognitive biases that hit engineers; statistical thinking and being fooled by numbers; evaluating sources and research; decision-making under uncertainty; and thinking in writing.
systemsStocks, flows, loops, delays, traps and leverage, applied.
modelsFirst principles, inversion, second-order effects, opportunity cost, base rates.
argumentsClaims, evidence, warrants, fallacies and steelmanning.
biasesConfirmation, anchoring, sunk cost, survivorship, planning fallacy.
numbersBase rates, regression to the mean, Simpson's paradox, correlation.
decisionsExpected value, reversibility, premortems, decision journals.
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Systems Thinking, Applied
Events, patterns, structures, beliefs · Archetypes you will meet
2 ch · ~12 min01Mental Models Worth Owning
Six models · A few more, briefly
2 ch · ~12 min02Arguments: Claims, Evidence and Warrants
Structure · Fallacies and steelmanning
2 ch · ~12 min03Cognitive Biases That Hit Engineers
Six biases and their counters · Overconfidence and calibration
2 ch · ~12 min04Statistical Thinking and Being Fooled by Numbers
Simpson's paradox and friends · Questions to ask of any number
2 ch · ~12 min05Evaluating Sources and Research
Grading the evidence
1 ch · ~8 min06Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
A decision process · Decision records
2 ch · ~12 min07Thinking in Writing
Write to think
1 ch · ~8 minBuilds on Systems Engineering and BooksSystems Engineering part 7 introduced systems thinking; Books part 15 summarises Thinking in Systems. Probability and Statistics (course 32) gives the maths behind part 5.